Commercial collaboration
By Nadine Koutsou-Wehling, Data Journalist
World eCommerce is on an upward path, despite global disputes for economic hegemony. In some world regions, online market development is more favorable, while other areas are stagnating or falling behind.
Leading growth regions are at the same time those that are behind in size, but this is not always the case. Take India, a huge market with even larger potential. In Europe, growth depends on various factors and does not always depend on size.
To declutter these patterns, the present article leans on extensive ECDB data to provide a view on growth development in global eCommerce. What are the growth markets, which ones are stagnating, where is the largest potential?
APAC: Highest expected growth region in eCommerce
The Asian continent unites the highest growth rates in global eCommerce, with many markets exceeding the world average CAGR (2024-2029) of 8.1%.
Apart from the smaller, well-established markets, Asia has a remarkable number of countries with growth trajectories worth discussing.
At the top ranges of expected CAGR (2024-2029) development are India (22.1%), Indonesia (21.9%), the Philippines (21.6%) and Thailand (21.3%). These countries exceed the world average of 8.1% and vary in size and reasons for growth.
China’s influence and the role of marketplaces like Shopee
Two aspects stand out in regard to Southeast Asian eCommerce development. One is the influence of China and its homegrown platforms. The other is the role of marketplaces in general, which help develop Southeast Asian economies by aiding small businesses reach a wider audience and gain international footing.
Within this aspect, China’s influence is undeniable. A large part of the top eCommerce players in APAC are operated by Chinese companies. They include Lazada (powered by Alibaba), TikTok Shop (operated by ByteDance), Taobao and Tmall (two platforms by Alibaba).
Contrasting this is Shopee, an eCommerce platform headquartered in Singapore, although its market shares are internationally distributed. Shopee ranks as the largest marketplace in all of the Southeast Asian markets, and its influence is growing. Shopee is usually number one in APAC and followed by Lazada, its closest competitor owned by Alibaba.
India: An internationally disputed turf for eCommerce development
India is simultaneously a large eCommerce market (ranking global fourth) and has a growth market status. Being the most populous country, with a young, tech-savvy consumer base, and a still-low online share, means India is highly attractive to international eCommerce companies looking to expand.
Two of these companies include Amazon and Walmart. But India has a variety of domestic players as well that play an important role in the market, backed by government policy.
Government policy is a key factor in supporting eCommerce development. Different regions handle this in their own way, worldwide regulation has been increasing though. In Europe, this generally falls under the hood of supranational legislation, the EU.
Southern European countries lead eCommerce growth
When we talk about Europe’s South at ECDB it is mostly to contrast its eCommerce markets with those of the continent’s leading online economies.
But this perspective is more positive than that. ECDB predicts growth rates for Southern European eCommerce markets that exceed world averages.
Spain, Portugal and Greece are at the top ranges of CAGR (2024-2029) value predictions. Other than some of the leading markets in the world, this puts them at an advantage over world averages.
The global CAGR for the period between 2024 and 2029 is 8.1%. Greece exceeds that figure most notably with a CAGR of 9.9%, followed by Spain and Portugal with 9.4%.
Players supporting growth: Amazon, Asian, Domestic retailers
Amazon is the leading player in Portugal, Spain, and Italy, where it drove eCommerce development with its offering and trademark services. Greece, however, is a curious case. Greek eCommerce lacks its own Amazon domain due to the challenging landscape for the services usually offered by the eCommerce giant.
Asian marketplaces further fueled growth. Among them are TikTok Shop and AliExpress. There are several reasons for their success in these respective markets. Their low-cost, wide-assortment strategy is popular globally, but especially in markets plagued by economic crises and stagnant real wages.
In markets where eCommerce has had a slower trajectory, the emergence of international marketplaces has helped kick off a development formerly based on apps that connect local small businesses to users online.
This aid in eCommerce development has not been necessary in more established world markets. But AliExpress and the likes have had their success in these markets, nonetheless. Take the DACH region.
Per capita revenue in DACH region: Germany falls behind Switzerland
The DACH region shapes European eCommerce. Especially Germany as the sixth largest eCommerce country worldwide is a core revenue driver in the region, of course driven by its standing as world industry.
Germany, Austria and Switzerland are geographically, culturally and industrially connected. In a direct comparison, it is clear that Germany generates higher market revenues, being the economic force in Europe it is. But breaking down the eCommerce revenues by population yields a different picture.
Germany’s population count is declining, but economic growth is still expected to continue. Due to its market maturity, however, online growth rates are behind global rates, with expectations for growth of 5.2% in 2025. Switzerland is at a same expected rate of 5.2%, while Austria lags with 4.7% growth in 2025.
In terms of per capita development, the forecasted CAGR between 2025 and 2029 places Germany at the top of development in the DACH region with 4.4%. Where citizens spent on average US$1,387 (€1,188¹) per year on eCommerce, the figure is expected to reach US$1,649 (€1,412¹) by 2029.
Between the three countries, this places Germany at a solid middle position in the DACH region, only exceeded by Switzerland with significant higher income levels and propensity to shop online.
Reasons for diverging per capita value and growth trajectory
Switzerland’s high position comes from its competitive income levels and higher propensity to shop online. In a comparison between Switzerland and the other parts of the DACH region, Switzerland has a good potential for eCommerce development, despite a relatively low CAGR (2025-2029) of 3.6% for per capita spend.
Situated in the center between Germany, Italy and France, Swiss online shopping habits are similarly divided. That distinction is visible by the top marketplaces in Swiss eCommerce, including Amazon (the German domain), Galaxus, Digitec, Zalando and Ricardo.
In terms of per capita spend, Austria is at US$1,313 (€UR1,125¹) in 2025. With a higher expected CAGR than Switzerland’s, Austria is set to reach an average spend of US$1,522 (€UR1,305¹) by 2029.
Austria’s rather flat development is powered by international marketplaces, particularly those of German origin. They include Amazon (the German domain), eBay, Otto and Zalando.
Moving from the most established eCommerce markets to those with lower online penetration, who’s standing out in that regard?
Latin America: Online shares below 12% at varying eCommerce potential
Of the Americas, there are only few markets that are discussed on a regular basis. But there are many other countries forming part of this vast continent.
In South American eCommerce markets in particular, the status quo is a low online presence and high growth potential. This position makes them attractive markets for development. However, there are variations in the degree to which this is true.
None of the markets with the highest online shares in Central and South America exceed 12%. They include Uruguay (11.7%), Ecuador (10.3%), Brazil (10.3%), Mexico (10.3%), Belize (10.1%) and Chile (10.0%).
The corresponding market growth rates are moderate, higher than the North American ones (around 28%), but mostly lower than that of South American markets. Mexico is an exception to this rule; it is one of the world’s eCommerce growth champions.
Although Mexico has a long way to go in terms of online market penetration with an online share of 10.3%, its market revenue growth rate was 26.9% in 2024, while Brazil’s was only 11.3%. Chile has an even worse rate, with a 10.0% online share and only 7.9% growth.
Factors contributing to Mexico’s growth potential
Mexico has seen intense investment in the eCommerce sector, with a flood of eCommerce giants entering the market. Amazon, Walmart, and Coppel are the three dominant eCommerce platforms and are driving eCommerce expansion in Mexico.
Mexico’s status as a U.S. neighbor places it right at the center of tariff discussions and allows it to benefit from large players looking to circumvent the inhibitions. This and its many inherent factors benefiting eCommerce development, such as population growth, nascent structure, consumer willingness to participate and surging online shares, place Mexico at the top of world eCommerce growth.
Wrapping up: Growth potential in world eCommerce
Global eCommerce is expanding, but growth is uneven across regions. APAC stands out with the highest growth rates, led by countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, while China’s platforms and regional marketplaces like Shopee play a major role.
Europe shows mixed results, with Southern European markets such as Greece, Spain, and Portugal growing faster than the global average. The mature DACH region sees slower but steady growth.
In Latin America, online market penetration is still low, but countries like Mexico are emerging as high-potential growth markets. This is thanks to strong investment and a consumer base benefiting market expansion.
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(1) US$ to €UR currency conversion as of 19 Aug 2025, 14:08 UTC – Morningstar
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