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Introduction: the state of German e-commerce 2025
As we step into 2025, Germany’s e-commerce landscape finds itself at a crossroads. After a historically challenging 2023 and a stagnating 2024, many in the industry are asking: Where do we go from here?
The Händlerbund Annual Study 2024, released in March 2025, provides deep insights into the current sentiment, performance, and operational hurdles facing online retailers. Based on survey data collected in early 2025, this report highlights the lingering effects of inflation, regulatory pressure, shrinking margins, and declining consumer enthusiasm.
In this in-depth analysis, we compare trends between 2023 and 2024 to understand the current state of German e-commerce in 2025—and what lies ahead.
1. 2023 in review: A wake-up call for the industry
The year 2023 was a turning point for e-commerce in Germany. For the first time in history, gross online goods sales saw a double-digit decline. According to data from the BEVH (Bundesverband E-Commerce und Versandhandel), reported by Reuters, revenue dropped by 11.8%, totaling just €79.7 billion, compared to over €90 billion the previous year.
Worse yet, combined revenues for goods and services fell below €100 billion, a threshold not breached since 2020. Even the rebound in digital services, such as ticketing and subscriptions, slowed dramatically—from 39.9% growth in 2022 to 12.7% in 2023.
These numbers signaled more than just a market correction. They revealed fundamental structural challenges in the sector, many of which have carried over into 2024 and beyond.
2. 2024 performance: Modest gains, lingering pains
The Händlerbund Annual Study 2024, which reflects data from 164 online retailers across Germany, paints a picture of stagnation and stress.
Key performance highlights from 2024:
- 50% of retailers reported a decline in annual revenue
- Only 31% saw growth (down from 34% in 2023)
- A mere 6% experienced “strong growth,” showing no improvement over the previous year
- 19% reported flat performance
These figures indicate that the market did not bounce back in 2024 as many had hoped. The challenges of 2023 persisted, and new burdens emerged.
3. Holiday season analysis: No end-of-year boost
The holiday shopping season is often a make-or-break period for e-commerce businesses. However, Q4 2024 proved underwhelming:
- Only 12% of merchants were “very satisfied” with their Christmas sales (vs. 18% in 2023)
- 59% expressed dissatisfaction, marking one of the weakest year-end periods in recent memory
This suggests that consumer confidence remains low. Shoppers are cautious, prioritizing essential spending over discretionary purchases, even during peak sales events.
4. Returns and logistics: Persistent cost burdens
E-commerce returns are a known cost driver, especially in fashion and electronics. The Händlerbund study noted a rise in high return rates:
- “Very many returns” (over 10% of orders) were reported by 6% of sellers (up from 4%)
- Those with “few returns” declined from 36% to 33%
Retailers highlighted challenges such as:
“Unnecessary comments from customers or claims that the products aren’t original, just so they can return them for free.”
Returns not only eat into margins but also strain logistics, staffing, and inventory forecasting—particularly during high-volume seasons.
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5. Industry sentiment for German e-commerce 2025: Slight optimism amid uncertainty
The Händlerbund study also surveyed retailer sentiment going into 2025 (data collected in early 2025, reflecting on 2024 performance). Here’s how the outlook compares to the previous year:
| Sentiment | Outlook for 2024 (Surveyed 2023) | Outlook for 2025 (Surveyed 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Very Optimistic | 11% | 13% |
| Cautiously Optimistic | 32% | 33% |
| Neutral | 27% | 24% |
| Critical Outlook | 30% | 30% |
While there’s a slight increase in optimism, nearly a third of retailers still expect a difficult year ahead. The overall tone suggests cautious resilience rather than recovery.
6. Main challenges heading into 2025
When asked about their greatest concerns for the year ahead, respondents cited the following:
Top e-commerce challenges for 2025:
- 64% – Inflation and consumer spending cuts
- 54% – Competitive pressure (including from giants like Temu, Amazon, Shein)
- 43% – Complexity of the new GPSR product safety regulation
- 40% – Legal uncertainty and fear of abmahnungen (legal warnings)
- 33% – Online marketing costs and difficulties in customer acquisition
Notably, issues like supply chain disruptions and labor shortages decreased in importance compared to 2023, suggesting operational resilience is improving, but market and regulatory pressures are intensifying.
7. Merchant voices: Bureaucracy, burnout, and big tech pressure
Some of the most telling insights come directly from retailer quotes collected in the study. Here are a few that speak volumes:
“Reach is a real issue—especially compared to the big players. Without enough budget, it’s a serious challenge.”
“You spend all your time dealing with side battles instead of focusing on your core business.”
These comments reflect deep frustration, especially among small and medium-sized merchants who feel squeezed by legal requirements, ad costs, and aggressive competition from low-cost international platforms.
8. The regulatory burden: GPSR and beyond
One of the most cited pain points in 2024 was the introduction of the General Product Safety Regulation (GPSR). This new EU directive caused headaches for 43% of retailers due to:
- Increased documentation
- Mandatory product warnings
- Unclear implementation rules
- Legal risk of non-compliance
Merchants also fear costly legal warnings (Abmahnungen) for minor errors, which contributes to a culture of fear rather than innovation.
9. German e-commerce 2025 outlook: Can the sector regain its momentum?
Based on the data and sentiment gathered, German e-commerce enters 2025 on shaky ground. While some operational elements are stabilizing, the core challenges of consumer austerity, legal overload, and platform-driven competition remain unresolved.
For retailers to succeed in 2025, they’ll need to:
- Diversify sales channels to avoid dependency on marketplaces
- Streamline operations and cut overheads
- Invest in legal compliance tools (like GPSR checks)
- Focus on customer retention, not just acquisition
Policy changes may also be needed to reduce bureaucratic friction and protect smaller players from aggressive legal and market tactics.
German e-commerce 2025: conclusion
The German e-commerce sector in 2025 remains in recovery mode. While some indicators show minor improvements compared to 2023, the overall landscape continues to be shaped by economic, regulatory, and competitive pressures.
As the Händlerbund Annual Study 2024 makes clear, the survival and success of online retailers will depend on their ability to adapt, automate, and comply—while navigating a consumer base that is more cautious than ever.
Sources
Händlerbund Jahresstudie 2024 – Published March 2025
Reuters / BEVH Report – “German e-commerce tough 2023″
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